Fears of crackdown as Vietnam PM set for new term

By Ian Timberlake (AFP)

61-year-old Vietnamese premier Nguyen Tan Dung has presided over a worsening rights record in the country (AFP/DDP/File, Axel Schmidt)

HANOI — After skilful consolidation of his growing power, Vietnam's prime minister is poised for a second term in office, with observers predicting his return heralds a further assault on freedoms.

Nguyen Tan Dung is expected to be chosen for another five years on Tuesday, in a symbolic vote by the communist-controlled National Assembly that will cement his place as the country's most powerful politician.

The 61-year-old, a former deputy in the influential security ministry, has presided over a worsening rights record and activists predict the one-party state will try to further tighten its grip on freedoms in the face of worries about Arab Spring-style unrest and economic discontent.

Both the US and Britain said the Internet and free expression were increasingly stifled last year, as the ruling Communist Party prepared for its secretive January Congress, which determined the top leadership positions that are to be confirmed next week.

In April, Amnesty International voiced concerns about the continuing detention of dozens of political critics and activists jailed since late 2009.

Dung is now in a strong position after he was re-elected to the Politburo with support from security and defence delegates that helped him fend off a leadership challenge, said an Asian diplomat on condition of anonymity.

He said the government is concerned over the Arab Spring uprisings against authoritarian governments.

"They are going to nip everything in the bud. I don't think they will allow a single spark," he said.

Phil Robertson, deputy Asia director at US-based Human Rights Watch, said the security ministry had been "empowered".

"It reflects, I think, the level of challenges that the Party thinks it's facing," he added.

Congress upped the number of security ministry officers in the elite Politburo, which sets government policy, from one to two.

Minister of Public Security General Le Hong Anh is expected to move up the hierarchy, becoming the party's de facto second-in-command.

Anh's deputy Lieutenant General Tran Dai Quang is widely touted to take over the ministry controlling the secret police, as well as the regular force.

Quang is "a hardliner" who will not tolerate online political activists, said a blogger, who asked for anonymity.

"Just after the coming parliament, they will begin to crack down. I find the situation more and more hopeless," the activist said.

Two small protests against China's alleged aggression in the South China Sea were forcibly dispersed in July, despite authorities' decision to allow similar protests earlier.

Traditional media, all linked to the state, have carried almost no news about the rallies or the police action against them, but independent blogs have widely covered the events.

There is no way the government can completely muzzle the web chatter but it does not want it to translate into real action in the street, the diplomat told AFP, predicting it would be "harder" for dissidents in the future.

Economic uncertainty has increased the pressure on the Vietnamese authorities.

Long focused on growth, the government this year shifted towards stabilising an economy facing a complicated mix of challenges including a struggling currency and trade deficit as well as increasingly high prices.

Vietnam's inflation is among the highest in the world and even official media have said the number of strikes is soaring as workers struggle to cope.

A credit squeeze aimed at taming accelerating prices has ramped up the cost of borrowing, hitting small businesses.

Public distress over the economy "is bubbling to the surface", the diplomat said. "The prime minister and the minister of public security will not want any voice of dissent coming out in this critical period."

Another dissident, whose identity AFP has withheld for his own protection, said the coming Vietnamese leadership are "very conservative" and predicted further problems for the under-pressure democracy movement.

He was meeting AFP in a near-empty restaurant recently when plainclothes policemen sat down. They said nothing, and did not need to.

"I think we have to stop now," the dissident said.