Asean centrality has moved up one notch with the Hague-based International Court of Justice mentioning Asean in its decision recently in regard to the Thai-Cambodian dispute. No wonder, Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa told his Asean colleagues a few hours later at their closed-door meeting in Bali that "Asean is in the equation".
As such, Asean will have to prove its worthiness in the weeks and months to come. Although the grouping's international profile has many facets involving a myriad of issues, for the time being the reputation of Asean will be judged on its effectiveness in handling the Thai-Cambodia conflict as well as its response to Burma's request for be regional chairman in 2014.
Last week, both Cambodia and Thailand were quick to agree to comply with the court's verdict demanding their troops pull out from the disputed areas near Preah Vihear Temple. Indeed, it was in line with one of the key recommendations at a meeting held within 24 hours by Thailand's top security leaders chaired by outgoing prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. It set in motion preparation for full compliance and an eventual troop pull out by the incoming government.
At the moment, Indonesia is waiting anxiously for the Pheu Thai-led government to make the next move. A new Cabinet is expected to be announced in the second week of August, ahead of the Queen's birthday.
By then, the agreed terms of reference drawn up previously between Indonesia and Thailand under the previous government would be amended following the court's recent ruling, especially the newly defined demilitarised zone on both sides. Certain procedures will still need to be worked out. Cambodia prefers dispatching the observers during the pullouts, while Thailand wants them in after the withdrawal.
Looking forward, the current Asean chair is racing against time to ensure some progress in the next 150 days before its term ends. After the 19th Asean summit at the end of the third week of November in Bali, Cambodia will effectively assume the new Asean chair - although officially the term starts in January.
Tense discussions have already started concerning an appropriate role for the incoming chair, if the Thai-Cambodia conflict continues, which is highly likely. Frequently asked questions include: Will Indonesia continue its current responsibility uninterrupted? Will Phnom Penh, as the future Asean chair, agree to such a plan while it is a party to the conflict?
Lessons drawn from the group's experience in Cambodia in July 1997 could be helpful. At the time, the country was in turmoil due to the coup and political fighting among factions headed by Prime Minister Hun Sen and now leader in exile Prince Norodom Ranariddh. During the Asean meeting in Kuala Lumpur, they decided to delay Cambodia's membership in Asean, which upset Hun Sen very much. To mediate the crisis, the late Indonesian foreign minister Ali Alatas was quickly named by Asean ministers to lead a 'troika' together with Thailand and the Philippines. After the scheduled 1998 election with the return of Hun Sen, Cambodia was admitted to Asean in 1999.
With this backdrop, Cambodia is expected to invite Indonesia, unless Jakarta says it wants to quit, to stay on in its current role with the consent of Asean. This way, Cambodia can focus on other important Asean agendas. In particular, Phnom Penh has an important task to secure the visits of leaders from key major powers attending the East Asia Summit at the end of next year - including the Asean-US leaders' meeting. The new chair has to follow up various schemes and initiatives aimed at promoting Asean's profile in the global community.
After 14 years of membership, Burma remains a continuing burden for Asean. The Asean foreign ministers have learnt some lessons and are wiser now. They decided to avoid making a recommendation for Asean leaders in November on the 2014 chair. The issue was not included on the agenda of senior officials and foreign ministers. Apart from the briefing Burmese Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin gave to his colleagues on the country's political situation and readiness to host the chair, other Asean members, except Laos, were muted. During the post-ministerial meetings with dialogue partners, China was the only country to support Burma's chair and commended the progress accomplished after the November election, which had been criticised as faulty.
So far Asean has remained "ambivalent" on whether to award the chair to Naypyidaw. That helps explain why Burma has been enthusiastic to have Marty and his team there for a fact-finding tour. But for the past three months, no trip has eventuated. Indeed, it has been quite embarrassing for Asean to have US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton constantly warn Asean of the dire consequence of having Burma as the 2014 chair. In Bali, she asked Burma to release political prisoners, begin dialogue with the opposition and address nuclear proliferation issues, otherwise Naypyidaw would not win the trust of the international community.
Before that eventuates, Burma has to gain Asean's trust. Singapore, the Philippines and Thailand, want to see substantive reforms and some progress registered on dialogue with the opposition as well as the ethnic groups before granting the chair to Burma. They also support the US call for the releasing of some political prisoners. Without positive development on these fronts, Marty will certainly delay his visit. In more ways than one, his visit is considered a pre-condition.
Otherwise, without satisfactory progress inside Burma before 2014 that is accepted by the international community, the credibility of Asean would be forever tarnished. Worse still is the prospect of having a chair from a country dreaded the world over, to reign over the preparation of the launch of the Asean Community in 2015 or in 1,255 days. It would not be an auspicious way to launch a 600-million plus community.
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