Friday, 20 July 2012
by William Gallov, VOA News
Analysts say continued efforts to unify Southeast Asian nations on the
issue of territorial disputes in the South China Sea are being
complicated by Beijing's rising influence in the region.
ASEAN, a bloc of 10 Southeast Asian nations, for the first time in its
45 year history failed to produce a joint statement at a regional
summit in Cambodia last week, revealing a deep rift over the issue.
The discord was widely attributed to political pressure from China,
which would rather deal separately with the five nations with which it
has maritime disputes, rather than confront ASEAN as whole.
Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa is on an emergency tour of
Southeast Asia, a trip he describes as an attempt to "restore ASEAN
cohesion and unity on the South China Sea." Speaking in Cambodia
Thursday, he said some progress is being made.
"ASEAN centrality requires - demands - ASEAN unity. And the fact is,
despite suggestions to the contrary, in actual fact, ASEAN remains
united, ASEAN remains cohesive. And therefore, ASEAN remains able to
fulfill its role as in the central and driving seat of our region,"
said Marty Natalegawa.
But many say unity is not likely to be achieved with China continuing
to exert enormous political pressure on nations like Cambodia, which
rely on Beijing for billions of dollars in economic assistance.
Ralph Cossa, a security analyst at the Pacific Forum in Hawaii, says such pressure could eventually work against China.
"I think China wants ASEAN to not unite," he said. "But I don't think
China wanted to see it go to the extreme that it did, where essentially
now the spotlight is shining on China's bullying of Cambodia and some
of the weaker ASEAN countries."
Many ASEAN members blame Cambodia, currently the bloc's chair, for
giving into Chinese pressure by rejecting a proposal by the Philippines
and Vietnam to mention their territorial disputes with China in the
group statement.
Phat Kosal, an Asia researcher at the University of Southern
California, says Vietnam is upset that Cambodia chose to side with
China, breaking their traditional alliance.
"I think there must be some kind of resentment [on behalf of Vietnam],
but not to the level that there is a split in the future because
Vietnam knows that Cambodia cannot do much as it is so much under
China's pressure. Cambodia needs assistance to develop its economy,"
said Phat Kosal.
Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch, says it is clear that
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, in siding with China over Vietnam, is
not putting his country's interest first.
"Hun Sen is showing that he is going to make alliances with the people
he thinks serve his interest the best," he said. "I don't think he
makes alliances thinking that they serve the country's interest the
best. I think it's almost always about what serves his political
interest and personal interest the best."
Observers say short-term attempts to build regional consensus on the
South China Sea may ultimately prove futile, even during the next ASEAN
summit in November.
But the issue is likely to return to ASEAN's agenda next year, when
Brunei - a claimant in the South China Sea - takes its turn as the
rotating head of the regional bloc.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment