Thailand, VN to lead nuclear drive for region

By The Nation
Published on November 3, 2010

Among Southeast Asian coun�tries, Thailand and Vietnam are expected to lead the way in nuclear power generation, accord�ing to a report by Wood Mackenzie's Southeast Asia Gas and Power Service.

However, in the report analysing nuclear power as a possibility for the region, it said the nuclear plants would come on stream only by 2025 at the earliest. Elsewhere, in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, nuclear power is unlikely to be commissioned.

"Southeast Asian countries are exploring the possibility of harvesting nuclear energy because electricity demand in the region is expected to triple by 2030 with an average growth of 6 per cent per annum. This implies 200 gigawatts of net capacity additions by 2030 across the region," said Graham Tyler, head of South East Asia Gas and Power Research.

"Strong economic growth and declining local, cheap gas reserves will see an increasing challenge to governments in maintaining energy security of supply. We see Thailand and Vietnam leading the way in nuclear power generation, although at the very earliest from 2025, and we think it will more likely happen only a few years beyond that."

challenge

Thailand has recently started speeding up its process for nuclear power development but will have a challenge in getting public support, Wood Mackenzie said. The authori�ties have to consider longterm secu�rity of fuel supply and increasing demand as piped gas reserves are set to deplete, increasing dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG), while public opposition will limit coal's role.

The Energy Ministry is conclud�ing its study as well as the potential location of the plants, which will be tabled for the government's decision early next year. Officials have reiterated that without the nuclear power plants, which are expected to supply 5,000 megawatts during the next 20 years, the country's power supply could be at a critical point.

For Vietnam, Wood Mackenzie said the immediate focus should be on meeting shortterm power shortages. However, in the long term the government will support nuclear diversification.

It said Indonesia would not need to opt for nuclear energy with domes�tic coal, geothermal and gas resources available, and also the higher costs involved in building nuclear due to its earthquakeprone geology make it less attractive.

Peninsular Malaysia is more likely to pursue the option of coalfired plants, as there are no strong political incentives or economic benefits as pull factors.

Last, Singapore has no firm plans for nuclear energy and neither of the technologies deemed most appropriate has proved to be commercial�ly viable, the report said.

Tyler outlined the three phases of nuclear power development. "First, governments need to set up a comprehensive nuclear legal framework with regulatory systems and operational plans. Second, an independent regulatory authority needs to be set up to implement the operational plans according to International Atomic Energy Agency standards. Last, there needs to be supervision during implementation as well as continued international commitments to maintain the confidence of neighbouring states.

"No countries currently exploring nuclear power in the region have completed the first phase of the process, although some have embarked on the second phase. We therefore believe that the prospect of nuclear power being installed by 2020 as targeted by Vietnam and Thailand appears to be too optimistic. Their current stage of development is inconsistent with the lead time required to construct a new plant," he added.

The report's breakeven analysis shows that the most economic form of meeting energy security requirements will still be coalfired plants. Tyler summarised: "Locally sourced natural gas will be an option but because the region's gas resources are declining, nuclear is an alternative given that the price of LNG is also likely to be high. Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows that the move to nuclear power is more a strategic decision to diversify fuel options than based on economics."