VN's population numbers to rise despite falling fertility rate

News Desk
Viet Nam News
Publication Date: 01-06-2009

Falling mortality and longer life expectancy will ensure that Viet Nam’s population continues to grow, a General Statistics Office Population Change and Family Planning Survey shows.

The survey’s results are summarised in a newly-published United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) booklet titled "Viet Nam Population 2008".

UNFPA representative Bruce Campbell says that although the total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped below replacement level and birth rates are declining, the absolute number of people will increase.

The increase will continue for about 20 years, or a generation, until members of the early post-war baby boom pass through their reproductive years, he says.

The demographic phenomenon can be expected in any country undergoing the transition through a "demographic bonus", during which those of economically productive age outnumber the remainder of the population.

"This change in age-structure provides a unique opportunity in terms of a large productive labour force that contributes to economic development and the further creation of job opportunities for young people entering the labour market," he says.

The booklet highlights the TFR and estimates the average number of children a woman gives birth to has continued to fall below the replacement level to 2.08 children per individual.

But although Viet Nam has achieved below-replacement fertility, there are sub-national variations with an average of 1.84 children for each urbal woman and 2.22 for her rural sisters.

Infant mortality drops The Infant Mortality Rate, an important development indicator, has declined from 16 infant deaths per 1,000 live births in 2007 to 15 deaths in 2008.

In addition, the Crude Death Rate, which reflects the yearly number of deaths per 1,000 population, is estimated at 5.3 per 1,000 and this has contributed to a decline in the Rate of Natural Increase of Population to 11.4 per 1,000.The 2007 figure was 11.8.The low mortality rates confirm progress toward the Millennium Development Goals and positive achievements in overall development as well as improvements in the national healthcare system. The age pattern of fertility has continued changing from "early" to "late", with more first children born to women of older age.

Fertility is now mostly concentrated in the ages from 25 to 34, urban, and from 20 to 29, rural.
The national survey confirms the relationship between fertility and female education.

High fertility is more prevalent among less educated women, suggesting that the national population and family planning programme should continue to strive toward universal access to reproductive health services, including family planning, for this group.

It shows the age-old cultural norm of son-preference has meant the birth of from 110 to 112 boys born for every 100 girls during the past three years.

The imbalance reinforces the importance of continued monitoring of the implementation of the Population Ordinance and the Prime Ministerial decree that prohibits all fetal sex determination and selection.

The booklet says the effort to strengthen public education and the promotion of gender equality to enhance the important role of women, both within families and society, must also continue.