Kavi Chongkittavorn
(Commentary) – When Asean Secretary-General Dr. Surin Pitsuwan met with Burmese President Thein Sein in Naypyitaw last month, it was a special occasion with potentially far-reaching consequences.
Commentator Kavi Chongkittavorn Photo: Facebook
Before he left the capital to meet with opposition party leader Aung San Suu Kyi and tour the Irrawaddy Delta, he appealed to Thein Sein personally that Burma do more to increase the “transparency and accountability” of the by-election on April 1.
“The people of Asean deserve to know how you are conducting your reforms. Myanmar will be our chair. You can do no less than what you did in the 2010 general elections. A bit more would help. Invite relevant people from the capitals and let Asean journalists in, at least,” he told the president.
Exactly three weeks later, Naypyitaw extended an invitation to Asean to send an observer team comprising the Asean chair, two observers from each Asean member and three observers from the Asean Secretariat to observe next week’s by-elections. The secretariat will also bring three journalists along.
The U.S. and the E.U. have also been invited to send observers – a far cry from the 2010 general elections, which were strongly condemned as a sham by the international community. Back then Burma invited only Rangoon-based diplomats and representatives from international organizations to observe the polling stations.
Asean diplomats took part to show solidarity with Burma while Western diplomats boycotted the event. This time the invitation includes observers inside and outside Burma, demonstrating Naypyitaw’s strong desire to make the by-election transparent, free and fair. The U.S. and E.U. reiterated that the polls and the manner in which they are conducted would carry weight in building further trust, as well as easing and ending decade-long sanctions.
Certainly, an overall process that is generally acceptable to the outside world will also greatly bolster Thein Sein’s authority and provide him with ammunition against persons or groups seeking to undermine his reform platform.
Although this is a high-stakes undertaking specifically aimed at winning the hearts and minds of Western countries, it also has far-reaching implications for Asean as a whole. Since Burma’s admission in 1997, Asean has been an all-weather friend of the junta and repeatedly called for an end to sanctions. Prior to the 2010 polls, the country was a favourite target of criticism in the international community for its brutal political suppression and failure to take up reforms and open up democratic space.
Within Asean – even though the peer pressure against Burma built up after the massacre in Depayin in 2003 and reached a crescendo during the bloodshed in September 2007 with a joint statement from New York expressing “revulsion” against the government’s armed crackdowns – the attitude to Naypyitaw remained benign. Past Asean proposals – including the dispatch of a troika and the pardoning of Suu Kyi – were turned down as well. Asean had to bite the bullet as its reputation and international standing plummeted.
As far as the Asean secretariat is concerned, its pivotal role was not given much attention during the post-Cyclone Nargis period, despite the great coordinating work by the tripartite core group, made up of officials from Asean, Burma, the U.N. and international agencies assisting rehabilitation and recovery efforts.
More than the Burmese authorities dare to admit, the core group’s 36-month presence (June 2008-December 2010) helped to create trust and confidence between Burma and the seemingly hostile outside world, not to mention prevention of “undesirable” foreign intervention. Indeed, the outpouring of humanitarian assistance worth nearly $1 billion in cash and in kind greatly helped to mitigate ill feeling among the top echelons.
To be fair, incremental changes began to emerge after the Asean Charter came into effect, coupled with the formation of the current government under President Thein Sein last March. Viewed from this perspective, the invitation to the Asean secretariat was unprecedented in the group’s 45-year history. In fact, Thein Sein is actually throwing a wrench into the works, unwittingly exposing the shortcomings of Asean.
By the nature of the political and electoral systems within Asean, its members do not have sufficient moral high ground to preach about a “free and fair” electoral system, let alone for building democratic institutions. There is a small hiccup, though, as independent monitoring organizations and individuals such as Asia Networks for Free Elections are not allowed in this time. It is hoped that during the next general election, scheduled for 2015, if there is no democratic backsliding, additional independent observers could be allowed. Truth be told, in Asean only Cambodia, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia give accreditation to independent outside observers, which the other half of Asean still reject.
During his visits to Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos last week, Thein Sein highlighted the role of Asean observers and asked for support. As a result, Cambodia, the current Asean chair, sent a letter on Thursday to other members calling for a consensus.
It remains to be seen what Asean’s collective response will be. In fact, the Asean Regional Forum had a plan to send a team of observers to monitor the recent presidential election in East Timor. However, it was aborted due to administrative and technical problems on both sides. Suffice it to say, most Asean members would be satisfied with the poll monitoring done by their Rangoon-based diplomats.
By engaging the Asean Secretariat in a sensitive political matter, Burma is effectively opening a Pandora’s box in regard to the mandate of Surin and his office. After the adoption of the Asean Charter in 2008, their mandate increased and expanded in representing the Asean position and voice.
Interestingly, when Asean decided to take a leading role in the post-Nargis recovery in May 2008, it was done quickly as part of the humanitarian effort and salvaged the group’s creditability. As such it was not perceived as an expansive endeavour that would cover political matters. It remains to be seen how Asean members will eventually respond to Burma’s initiative.
Again, the reform process, including monitoring of upcoming polls, is a work in progress with specific short-term and long-term objectives. Since there is no guarantee that the progress made now is irreversible, as the Tatmadaw – armed forces – still has the power to trump the ongoing transformation, if it so wishes. So long as the democratic transformation continues to hold firm at least until Burma’s chairmanship in 2014, Asean and the world could encounter a fresh regional game-changer as never before seen.
– K avi Chongkittavorn is a columnist for The Nation in Bangkok and a long-time observer of Asean and Burma.
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