China's refusal to have water-sharing pacts may have serious consequences for India

Abantika GhoshAbantika Ghosh, TNN | Jun 21, 2011
Source: timesofindia

NEW DELHI: The recent scare about China diverting the Brahmaputra is not the first time that India has expressed concerns about its communist neighbour's hydel projects and it is unlikely to be the last given that China not only has a host of projects lined up on the river – 24 according to some reports – but also at least five with a cumulative power generation capacity of about 2000 MW lined up on the Arun river (Bamchu) that enters India to become the Kosi.

Neither is India the only country voicing these concerns. China's abhorrence of any proposal to share natural resources has also caused consternation in other southeast Asian states like Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Laos -- which are downstream the Mekong river. China has six mega dams with three more to come up on the Mekong. China's increasing economic prowess has meant that there is hardly any pressure from the international community on the matter leaving all the lower riparian states around it to more or less fend for themselves.

India's putative future losses because of China's preoccupation with mega dams is pegged at the highest among all the other SE Asian states given that most of the country's major rivers originate in Tibet. There is also the added problem that any mention of surveillance by satellites tends to evoke vociferous allegations of snooping from China. The first indications of the Zangmu dam on the Brahmaputra, which China finally admitted to last year, were got from satellite imagery.

Says strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney, "China has always been unapologetic about its refusal to enter into water-sharing agreements with any state. It has always maintained that it would take into account the interests of the lower riparian states but about half of the world's total number of large dams are in China. India, with so many of its major rivers originating in Tibet, is going to be among the worst affected. The issue is usually soft pedaled by the water resources ministry and there is never any international pressure on this though the list of countries suffering because of China's refusal is quite long including Russia, Kazakhstan, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos."

Incidentally there is hardly anything secret about these projects. Most of them are in the public domain, put up by the companies executing these projects.

The projects lined up by the Chinese government on Bamchu are Kanggong, Qudang, Sangdangla, Shali and Laxiang. For the Brahmaputra, China has always maintained that the projects are not storage type but run-of-the-river. But Chellaney says India may do well to keep an eye on what is happening in Mekong where some of the dams that have been conceived are of 6000-8000 MW capacity. India's highest installed hydropower capacity, on the other hand, is in the range of about 1500 MW. "China has a way of gradually increasing the size of projects. They have done that in Mekong," Chellaney says.

The problem is not just about dams. "As lower riparian states, anything that China does that may change the nature of the aquifer, will have implications for India and Nepal. Pollution in rivers too would. This is also a matter of concern especially in view of the fact that there is no water-sharing agreement in place," says S K Sharma, former member of the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) and ADB consultant on climate change.