Upward Revision Seen In Global Rice Supplies In 2011-12 - USDA

Capital Market / May 12, 2011
Source: India info line

USDA report revealed that the global 2011/12 total supply and use are each projected to reach record levels at 554.9 and 458.7 million tonnes, respectively, resulting in a modest decline in world ending stocks.

The global 2011/12 rice production is projected at a record 457.9 million tonnes, up 6.6 million or 1.5 percent from 2010/11. Large crops are projected for most of Asia including record or near-record crops in Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. In contrast, rice crops in many Western Hemisphere nations including Argentina, Brazil, Peru, the United States, and Uruguay are forecast lower than the previous year.

Global 2011/12 consumption (which includes residual) is projected at a record, led by increases for Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Laos, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. Global exports in 2011/12 are projected at a marketing-year record 32.2 million tonnes, up 0.8 million from 2010/11 with increases expected for India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, while exports from the U.S., Cambodia, and Brazil are expected to decline. Larger imports are projected for Middle Eastern, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Western Hemisphere markets, although the expected increases are slight. Global ending stocks are expected to decline 0.9 million tonnes from 2010/11 to 96.2 million. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2011/12 is calculated at 21.0 percent, down from last year's 21.6 percent.

Projected smaller U.S. 2011/12 total rice supplies, combined with a modest decline in total use, results in lower projected ending stocks. U.S. rice production in 2011/12 is projected at 211.0 million cwt, 13 percent below 2010/11. U.S. 2011/12 total rice use is projected at a 236.0 million cwt, 2 percent below the previous year's record level. U.S. domestic and residual use is projected at a near-record 127.0 million, unchanged from 2010/11 as per capita use of rice has shown virtually no growth in recent years.

The U.S. 2011/12 long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $11.00 to $12.00 per cwt compared to a revised $11.00 to $11.30 for the previous year. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.00 to $16.00 per cwt, compared to a revised $16.85 to $17.15 for the year earlier. The 2011/12 all rice price is projected at $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt, compared to a revised $12.35 to $12.65 per cwt for 2010/11.