The Straits Times
Publication Date : 04-12-2010
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Almost unprecedented pageantry is in the air across Thailand and especially in Bangkok as the nation prepares to celebrate the 83rd birthday of Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej tomorrow. As is customary, tonight (December 4) the King will address the Prime Minister and Cabinet, top bureaucrats, privy councillors, the chiefs of the armed services and other prominent Thais. On paper, the King is a constitutional monarch. In reality, he is unquestionably the nation's highest moral authority. As such, his speech, which is broadcast, is always closely watched - but perhaps more so now than ever. King Bhumibol is credited with having held the country together through multiple military coups, various Constitutions and prime ministers, regional wars, factional fights and uprisings. His reign of more than 60 years also resurrected a monarchy that had been marginalised from 1932 to the late 1940s, raising it to arguably its greatest era. But in his twilight years, Thailand has been rocked by deep divisions that have become more acute as the inevitable royal succession nears. And, ironically, disenchantment with the monarchy's role and influence - even if this is not directed at the widely revered King himself - has emerged in a section of the population. Most 'red shirts' voted for Thaksin Shinawatra as prime minister. But he was ousted by the army in September 2006. Since then, the red shirts have been demanding an end to interference in politics by the old-money Bangkok elites who, with the military and the bureaucracy, have run Thailand for generations. The movement - a loose coalition of supporters of former premier Thaksin, the rural and urban working classes, a segment of the business elite aligned with Thaksin and former leftist intellectuals - is seen as a threat to the power structure. The elites see Thaksin, who is still in exile dodging a jail term for corruption, as a closet republican. The Thai government has branded him a 'terrorist'. The elites have circled the wagons. In recent days, the country's powerful army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha and police chief Wichean Potephosree - hand-picked for his royalist credentials - have both warned against any expressions of political dissent this weekend. An election also looms. Technically, Parliament must be dissolved by next December; the election, therefore, could come as late as 2012. But the understanding in political circles appears to be that it will be held early next year. "The sentiment of the people is that they need relief," said Mr Kiat Sittheeamorn, Thailand's trade representative and a senior Democrat Party figure. The results of upcoming by-elections in five provinces on Dec12, however, may influence the timing of a general election. In three constituencies, opposition Puea Thai party candidates - who will rely on red shirt votes - will go head to head with the Bhum Jai Thai run by provincial strongman Newin Chidchob, who deserted Thaksin for the Democrat Party, enabling it to form the government. If Puea Thai wins the seats - or if there is violence in the emotionally charged contests - it may move the Democrat Party to pause for thought before calling an election sooner rather than later. The public mood is mixed. The ruling Democrat Party's recent acquittal on charges of misusing a state subsidy came on a technicality. That soured the red shirts and the Puea Thai party. The right-wing, royalist People's Alliance for Democracy which used to support the Democrats has turned against them. It has accused the party of corruption and of conceding Thai territory to Cambodia. The old elites prefer the Democrat party, the army remains in the driver's seat, and there is no sign of compromise. "It is 'winner takes all'," said former deputy prime minister Chaturon Chaisang in an interview. With Thailand becoming more polarised, he warned of a growing 'culture of anarchy' among the red shirts. |
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