Burma visit a test of credibility for UN Sec-Gen

Nirmal Ghosh
The Straits Times
Publication Date: 02-07-2009

When United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon arrives in Burma on July 3, he will be challenged to show results for the sake of his credibility and that of the UN, as well as for the regional and international community.

The main challenge for him is to go beyond the process and protocol of meetings and come up with real options to end the stalemate over the regime's detention of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

For most of the time since the junta refused to recognise her party's victory in Burma's last elections, held in 1990, Ms Suu Kyi has been in detention. She is now on trial on charges of breaching the terms of her house arrest after an American man swam uninvited to her house in May.

All is not necessarily going the way of Burma's ruling State Peace and Development Council. For one thing, the global criticism of her trial may have taken it by surprise. Also, unqualified support from fellow Asean members is not guaranteed.

And Burma's army, which is battling the Karen National Union, may soon find itself at war with other ethnic groups which are unwilling to submit their armed cadres to the regime's authority.

Meanwhile, international sanctions continue to take a toll on an economy that remains in the doldrums.

Three key issues will figure in Ban's talks with the regime's supremo, Senior General Than Shwe: the release of political prisoners, including Suu Kyi; the resumption of dialogue between the government and the political opposition; and the need to create conditions conducive to credible elections next year.

The humanitarian effort in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis will also be discussed.

There is no word on whether Ban will meet Suu Kyi. He told Reuters in Japan on June 30: "It may be the case that (her) trial happens during my visit to Burma. I am very much conscious of that."

It seems likely her trial will be dragged out until General Than Shwe has considered what Ban has to say.

The mission is not without risk for Ban. If it comes across as a public relations show for the regime, he is likely to be savaged by the strong pro-democracy lobby outside Burma.

Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy is pessimistic that the visit will produce results, even as Ban is under pressure to display his skills as a mediator.

"The Secretary-General needs to push the reset button," said Burma historian Thant Myint U, a visiting fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

"He needs to start from where Burma is today - one of the poorest countries in the world, emerging only now from half a century of armed conflict, a country which has only had army rule since 1962 - and identify clear and realistic options going forward.

"Without a meaningful end to the civil war and steps to lessen the country's extreme poverty, there can be no sustainable transition to democracy. The Secretary-General should articulate clearly how these three pieces of the puzzle need to progress together."