Nirmal Ghosh
The Straits Times
Publication Date: 15-07-2009
Burma's ruling regime has indicated that it was considering amnesty for prisoners ahead of elections next year, but its announcement was met yesterday with caution by analysts and main opposition party National League for Democracy (NLD).
With details of the plan still unclear, whether the release of prisoners would have any significant impact on the country's future direction remained in doubt.
Burma's ambassador to the United Nations U Than Swe told the UN Security Council that the country was responding to a request from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon, who recently visited Burma.
"The Burmese government is processing to grant amnesty to prisoners on humanitarian grounds and with a view to enabling them to participate in the 2010 general election," he said on Monday.
"Burma today is steadfastly proceeding on its chosen path to democracy," he added, appealing to the international community not to impose its own views on Burma.
"Undue pressure from the outside without fully comprehending the challenges faced by Burma will not be conducive to the country's home-grown political pro-cess," he said, reflecting a view shared by Burma's neighbours India and China, as well as a growing number of analysts even in the West.
The statement came a few days after Ban's visit was criticised as fruitless by several Western governments and exiled pro-democracy Burmese activists, some of whom called for the Security Council to impose an arms embargo on the regime.
It also came a few days before Asean foreign ministers and the regional bloc's dialogue partners India, China and the US are due to meet in Thailand.
Burma is estimated to be detaining more than 2,000 political prisoners. A previous amnesty in February saw the release of 6,300 convicts, of whom only 23 were political prisoners.
NLD spokesman Nyan Win told reporters: "We would welcome it if they released political prisoners in an amnesty, but very few political prisoners have been included in previous amnesties."
Some of those currently detained were involved in the Yangon street protests of 2007.
Analysts said the regime is unlikely to release political prisoners unless it is sure they pose no threat.
At the same time, it has always been keen not to be seen as caving in to international pressure.
Still, Ban welcomed U Than Swe's statement, telling reporters: "This is encouraging, but I have to continue to follow up how they will implement all the issues raised during my visit to Burma." He added, however, that he was unsure who would be covered by the amnesty.
"I have made it quite clear that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi should be released and free to participate in the elections," he said.
Suu Kyi, who has spent most of the last 19 years in detention, is under trial for allegedly violating her house arrest after an American man swam to her lakeside bungalow in May.
The harsh response of the regime drew an outcry from the international community, prompting Ban's visit to Burma earlier this month.
"The (Burmese) government needs to deliver on the promise to make the 2010 elections inclusive, free and fair," Ban said in a briefing to the Security Council.
"The choice for Burma's leaders in the coming days and weeks will be between meeting that responsibility in the interest of all concerned, and failing their own people and each one of you.
"The world is now watching closely whether they will choose to act in the best interest of their country or ignore our concerns and expectations and the needs of their people."
The Security Council remains divided on Burma. The US, Britain and France remain hardline in their approach, and in favour of tightening sanctions.
But China, which has strategic interests in Burma's stability, opposes the sanctions that have left Burma economically isolated, as well as the idea of the Security Council censuring Burma.
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