03 Feb, 2011
DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) said in a research note today that it is convinced that given the increasing political tension due to the yellow shirt protest, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva would call for a House dissolution earlier than expected.
It initially expected the dissolution in the middle of 2011.
The constitution amendment is likely to be completed in February, and the House may be dissolved as soon as March or April, it said.
Referring to the People's Alliance for Democracy's ultimatum to the government, it said that political tension could escalate in the next few weeks.
"The Thai government is unlikely to fulfill the demands of the Yellow shirts. First, the Thai-Cambodia border issue is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. Second, the government is unlikely to use harsh measures to bring back Veera and Ratree from Cambodian jail, as PM Abhisit said earlier that the seven Thais had entered Cambodian territory illegally.
"Meanwhile, the government is unlikely to employ measures harsher than it would use on the Yellow shirts to disperse the Red shirts demonstrations, in a bid to remain impartial to both parties. Note that the government has allowed the Yellow shirts to hold a demonstration at an area close to the Government House."
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