Yingluck poised to lead

Aug 6, 2011
Bangkok Post

ANALYSIS: Vote for Thailand's first woman premier goes smoothly, but strife awaits

Yingluck Shinawatra sailed smoothly through a House of Representatives vote to become Thailand's 28th and first woman prime minister, pending royal endorsement, but several threats to her power loom large.

Yingluck Shinawatra and her family leave Pheu Thai Party headquarters last night after learning that the royal command for her to become prime minister had not yet been given. PATIPAT JANTHONG

The House of Representatives yesterday voted 296:3 to select Ms Yingluck as prime minister with 197 abstentions.

She was nominated by Pheu Thai MP Sanoh Thienthong for the job without contest. Three MPs voted against her, all of them Democrats: Boonyod Sukthinthai, Watchara Phetthong and Atthaporn Polabutr.

Still, Ms Yingluck did not receive the royal command endorsing her election as prime minister last night. Pheu Thai had decked out its head office in preparation for the acceptance of the royal command which the party had anticipated would arrive last evening.

Politicians from Pheu Thai and its coalition partners donned full white formal attire for the occasion, but were seen leaving the party head office late last night having failed to witness their leader being endorsed for the job.

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Earlier in the day, Pheu Thai list MP Plodprasop Suraswadi told reporters that the royal command was likely to be received between 5pm-8pm yesterday.

House Speaker Somsak Kiatsuranont said he forwarded the name of Ms Yingluck as prime minister-elect to the Office of His Majesty's Principal Private Secretary yesterday afternoon.

The office will set an appointment for him to receive the royal endorsement of Ms Yingluck later.

Being the country's first woman to hold the premiership will not extend her any favours during her honeymoon period. In fact, her government should not expect any leniency from opposition parties and it faces a number of significant threats.

Once her government assumes office next week, it will be forced to reckon with problems that need to be solved immediately, including the rising cost of living, and inflation.

In July inflation rose 4% from a year earlier, driven by climbing food and energy costs. It was the fourth month in a row with inflation at 4% or more.

Rising pork prices, which have reached 170-180 baht a kilogramme in some areas of the country, have prompted butchers in Songkhla's Hat Yai district and Betong in Yala to stop working in protest.

This could affect the government's popularity, just as the Democrat party experienced when it failed to rein in cooking oil prices amid a shortage early this year.

The second threat concerns implementation of the policies which Pheu Thai promised during its campaign.

Although Ms Yingluck has confirmed her party will carry out its promises, the question is how, and to what extent.

Two of the most controversial policies _ raising the daily minimum wage to 300 baht and paying new university graduates 15,000 a month _ will be difficult to implement. It will also have to deal with its promise to develop a new city by reclaiming land from the sea.

The third threat relates to the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck's elder brother, is known to have good relations with Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen who said the election outcome marked the start of "a new era of cooperation" and that differences between the countries would be resolved peacefully.

The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has accused Thaksin of a conflict of interest over his relationship with Cambodia. As a result, any move by the Yingluck government on the border dispute will be closely watched. Any move that puts Thailand at a disadvantage, or even compromising its position, could raise questions about what Thaksin and his sister stand to gain.

Mr Hun Sen yesterday sent a letter congratulating Ms Yingluck on her election as prime minister.

"I am optimistic that with a joint commitment, Your Excellency and I will be able to restore our traditional friendship, and fruitful cooperation between our two countries' peoples," he wrote. The new government will have a tough time handling the troop withdrawal from the border following the International Court of Justice's ruling on July 18 that both countries remove their troops from disputed areas.

This ruling stands, pending the court's final decision on Cambodia's request that the court interpret its own 1962 ruling on the Preah Vihear temple.

Meanwhile, leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), who undeniably were responsible for part of Pheu Thai's landslide election victory will probably be passed over for seats in the new cabinet.

This could be the fourth risk factor facing the Yingluck government.

"If the UDD leaders do not get any ministerial seats in the first-round cabinet, they should get some in a reshuffle after six months," said a UDD source.

UDD leaders, some of whom face charges of terrorism stemming from the protests in April and May of last year, are reportedly bargaining for ministerial seats for themselves and Pheu Thai MPs sympathetic to their cause, such as Apiwan Wiriyachai and Chakkarin Pattanadamrongchit.

The red shirts' political ideology has raised concerns in some quarters, particularly their tendency to touch on the monarchy. This could lead to opposition against the Pheu Thai government. "Red-shirt leaders hope to get a seat in the Education Ministry so that they can insert their democracy ideology into the national curriculum," the source said.

The proposed political amnesty is the last threat, but not the least important. The policy, if executed, could hamstring the Pheu Thai-led government. If an amnesty were implemented it would benefit Thaksin who was sentenced by the Supreme Court to two years in jail for helping his ex-wife Khunying Potjaman na Pombejra buy state land in the Ratchadapisek area in 2003 while he was prime minister. Ms Yingluck has said that Pheu Thai has no policy to give Thaksin in particular an amnesty. But if her party's amnesty were to be granted and if it favoured her brother, she has acknowledged that it could lead to renewed street protests and political unrest.